A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
