Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
