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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

However the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent strugglers ascending collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still